New surveys: Only withholding tax threatens the Federal Council with a nail-biter
On September 25, a yes to the AHV templates and a no to the factory farming initiative are still emerging. This is shown by new surveys by SRG and Tamedia and 20 minutes.
It looks like women will have to work longer hours in the future. In any case, the two AHV templates are still on course. This is shown by the second wave of the SRG-SSR trend survey on the referendums of September 25, 2022, published on Wednesday by the gfs.bern research institute. 59 percent of those surveyed are in favor of raising the retirement age, and 63 percent are in favor of additional financing via VAT.
In both places, pollsters speak of a slight no trend. In other words: the advocates have lost a little popularity. But the large lead makes it likely that the templates will be accepted.
The increase in VAT, however, requires not only the population but also the estates. This is because the constitution has to be changed for this to happen. A refusal seems possible, especially in western Switzerland and Ticino – but even if all Latin-speaking cantons voted no, 4.5 states from German-speaking Switzerland would still be needed.
However, that is rather unlikely. If, contrary to expectations, this should happen in a good two weeks, the entire AHV reform would fall through: the two templates are linked.
It is also interesting to take a look at the expected turnout. This is currently at an estimated 44 percent. The mobilization is particularly deep among women. Currently only 39 percent state that they want to go to the polls. For men it is 49 percent.
“Since women are particularly badly affected by the AHV proposal, their final mobilization should be higher than at present.”
… says the study by gfs.bern.
At least in percentage terms, the other two topics of the forthcoming voting Sunday are even more exciting. Both in the case of the factory farming initiative and the change in the withholding tax, the majorities remain tight. And in both cases, the no camp has continued to catch up since the last poll. In the case of factory farming, the tide has even turned: a majority now speaks out against the referendum.
Specifically, 52 percent would currently vote no. 47 percent want to insert yes. According to pollsters, this trend is likely to intensify. “Anything else would be a surprise,” write the study authors. At the same time, the initiators are likely to achieve a respectable result. A result of “well over 40 percent” remains realistic, writes gfs.bern. For comparison: in the summer of 2021, two agricultural bills were rejected with a massive counter-campaign by agriculture, each with over 60 percent of the vote.
However, the fronts between left and right and between town and country are clearly defined. The ditch runs on the one hand between the Green Liberals and the centre. To the right of this, the no part clearly dominates, to the left a yes is increasingly thrown in. The pollsters are also observing the expected trend in urban and rural areas. But: In contrast to last year’s vote, there is “no such clearly visible polarization,” writes gfs.bern.
The abolition of the withholding tax is currently completely in the balance. At the beginning of September, “almost 47 percent voted for the change in the withholding tax law and 44 percent against it,” the statement said. At the same time, gfs.bern can also be observed here as a no trend. A tight decision is still emerging, the final mobilization should be decisive. After the resounding no to the abolition of the emissions tax in the spring, it would already be the second defeat in tax policy by the Federal Council and Parliament.
20 minutes and Tamedia: mobilization crucial
Tamedia and 20 Minuten also published their current voting poll on Wednesday. Accordingly, the AHV templates would be accepted with 56 and 55 percent yes. “Due to the strong polarization between the sexes and the left and bourgeois parties, the mobilization on voting Sunday will be decisive for the outcome of the votes,” says a statement.
According to this survey, the rejection of the factory farming initiative is 60 percent. In the last survey by Tamedia and 20 minutes, rejection was only 49 percent.
In the case of the federal law on withholding tax, on the other hand, the number of yes votes rose to 40 percent, but approval remained stable at 48 percent. (wap)