Alternative energy action could rebound off the uptrend line


The shares of solar technology concern Enphase Energy (ENPH) fell on the charts over the past week, despite the company’s first-quarter earnings and revenue slashing last week. In fact, security has been on the decline since its Feb. 10, an all-time high of $ 229.04, although it still posts an impressive 185% year-over-year lead. The even better news is that the ENPH recently landed near a historically bullish trendline, which could help stocks rebound in the coming weeks.

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Digging deeper, Enphase Energy stock has just come within one standard deviation of its 200-day moving average after a long time above that trendline. According to data from Rocky White, senior quantitative analyst at Schaeffer, two similar signals have occurred in the past three years. Stocks enjoyed a positive return a month after the two signals, with an average gain of 39.7%. From its current perch, a comparable move would place ENPH just above the $ 175 mark.

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A change in the options pits would create additional favorable winds for equity. This corresponds to the 10-day put / call volume ratio of the ENPH at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which stands at over 88% readings from the last 12 months.

Now is a good time to weigh on Enphase Energy’s next move with options. The stock’s 62% Schaeffer Volatility Index (SVI) is in the third percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are currently assessing expectations of low volatility. Additionally, its Schaeffer Volatility Score Card (SVS) is capped at 100. This suggests that the ENPH has exceeded these year-over-year volatility expectations – a boon for option buyers.

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