Stock markets were on a roller coaster ride last week as they plunged on Monday amid fears that Evergrande, China’s second-largest real estate developer, would default on its debt, causing growth in China to slow down. Concerns about the US government’s reaching the debt ceiling and when the Fed will start cutting back have also played into the market’s gyrations.
After digesting all of this, markets rallied to close higher for the week with the Dow and S&P 500 up 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively, while the Nasdaq was flat. However, these and other issues, such as the continued impact of the Delta coronavirus variant, could lead to greater volatility until a large number of companies release their September quarter results in the second. half of October.
Stocks performed better under Biden than Trump
Even with recent stock market weakness in September, in President Trump’s preferred measure of success, President Biden’s post-election stock gains have exceeded Trump’s equivalent returns over ten months and more.
Using feedback from when the election was called in Biden’s favor until the end of September versus when Trump was called the winner that night, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose by 0, 9%, 10.0% and 2.8% more under Biden, respectively. In absolute returns, they increased by 22.9%, 27.0% and 26.5% respectively.
It was only using the groundbreaking dates that Trump’s Dow and Nasdaq yields exceed Biden’s by 0.8% and 2.0%, respectively, but Biden’s S&P 500 yield reported. 6.7% more than Trump’s. The stock market did not collapse under Biden as Trump predicted, as seen in this debate video.
The performances of Biden and Trump’s Dow are very similar
On Tuesday of 2016, the election was held between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the Dow 30 Industrials closed at 18,333. The index responded positively to Trump’s victory, called the same evening, and continued on a fairly steady uptrend until the end of September 2017.
- From Tuesday, November 8, closing: + 4,017 or 21.9%
- From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): + 2,617 or 13.3%
On election Tuesday between Trump and Biden, the index closed at 28,323. It also rose the next three days with Biden leading but was not called. On the Monday following the election call, the index widened and rose until August until it reached some weakness in September. Biden’s returns have been 0.9% better than Trump’s since the election was called, but are 0.8% lower than the previous president’s from the dates of inauguration.
- From Tuesday November 3, closing: up 7,318 or 26.6%
- From Friday November 6, closing: + 6,475 or 22.9%
- From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): up 3,867 or 12.5%
S&P 500 is Biden’s biggest outperformance against Trump
Trump recorded a smaller gain in the S&P 500 against the Dow 30. It has risen 17.0% since his election day and 10.5% since his inauguration until the end of September 2017.
- From Tuesday 8 November, closing: +363 or 17.0%
- From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): + 239 or 10.5%
Between Biden’s election and last Friday, the S&P 500’s returns were better than the Dow’s. Biden’s market returns were again significantly higher than Trump’s by 10.0% since the election was called and 6.7% since his inauguration.
- From Tuesday, November 3, closing: up 1,086 or 32.2%
- From Friday November 6, closing: + 946 or 27.0%
- From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): + 657 or 17.3%
Nasdaq performance split between Biden and Trump
The post-election period at the end of September saw the Nasdaq with the best-performing index for Trump, reaching 23.7%, but was still below Biden’s 26.5%.
- From Tuesday, November 8, closing: up 1,233 or 23.7%
- From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): + 887 or 16.0%
Trump’s 16.0% return since his inauguration is the best outperforming measure over Biden at 14.0%.
- From Tuesday November 3, closing: up 3,887 or 34.8%
- From Friday November 6, closing: + 3,152 or 26.5%
- From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): up by 1,851 or 14.0%