With the recent influx of traditional financial players into the blockchain space, how long will it take for the allocation of Bitcoin (BTC) by companies to become the norm? Brian Estes, founder of investment firm Off The Chain Capital, thinks 10 years.
“I think in 2029, 2030, when 90% of American households and people in the United States are using cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, then I think it becomes a stable part of the economy, and not just the US economy, but I think the global economy, ”Estes told TBEN in an interview.
Estes’ reasoning is based on an analysis of the S-curve, a common graphic image illustrating the speed and process of adoption of new technologies. “The time it takes for a new technology to go from 0% adoption to 10% adoption is the same time it takes to go from 10% adoption to 90% adoption,” Estes said. .
Digital asset owners make up at least 15% of the US population aged 18 and over, based on 2020 data from consulting firm Cornerstone Advisors, as reported by Ron Shevlin, TBEN contributor, in July. Acting U.S. Currency Comptroller Brian Brooks also commented on the 15% estimate in an interview with TBEN in August.
In 2019, only 10% of Americans owned crypto assets, up from 0% before Bitcoin’s launch in early 2009, Estes said. In April 2019, data from Blockchain Capital claimed that Bitcoin holders made up 11% of the US population.
“It took 10 years for Bitcoin to go from 0 to 10% adoption,” he said. According to the S-curve analysis, BTC is expected to reach 90% adoption in the current decade. In light of 15% of Americans holding cryptocurrencies in 2020, Estes said, “We are on track to reach 90% in 2029.”
“It’s not an ‘if’ anymore,” Estes said of crypto adoption, adding:
“Between 0 and 10% adoption, it’s an ‘if’. Once a new technology reaches 10% adoption, it’s a “when”. It’s the same amount of time, and I can give you many examples – from personal computers, to the Internet, to fax machines in the 1970s, to washing machines in the 1940s, to automobiles in the 1930s, to roads. from iron in the 1800s, to shipping the 1600s – it’s the same adoption curve. “
In addition to MicroStrategy, Jack Dorsey’s Square and billionaire Paul Tudor Jones have also placed big bets on Bitcoin in 2020.