Bitcoin price hits unprecedented stock-flow rebound since 2017

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Bitcoin (BTC) spending more than three weeks in the $ 30,000 range is proving a crucial test for one of its most well-known pricing models.

As Noted By Philip Swift, co-founder of the Decentrader trading suite on June 11, Bitcoin launches a major challenge to the stock-flow price prediction tool.

Is this the bounce time for the BTC price?

BTC price action has hovered in a lower corridor between $ 30,000 and $ 40,000 since mid-May. This worried day traders, while vintage bulls called for calm and a long-term mindset.

As TBEN reported, the stock-flow model continues to adapt to such behavior, even though its estimates call for a BTC / USD value closer to $ 70,000.

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Its creator, PlanB, is nevertheless worried about the future. If current levels are maintained longer, its model risks being invalidated for the first time in its history.

Highlighting the divergence of spot prices from the stock-flow average, Swift explained that such cases have in fact happened before. Each time, Bitcoin has bounced off a given price from the stock-flow average, eventually reaching new all-time highs.

“It’s been a long time since the price was as low as the S2F line,” he told Twitter followers.

“The divergence oscillator at the bottom of the chart is highlighted by the orange dotted line and arrows to show comparable historical periods. The price of Bitcoin has rebounded sharply from such a divergence before.”

Bitcoin stock-flow model with the divergence extremes highlighted. Source: Philip Swift / Twitter

PlanB is considering moving averages

Previously, PlanB suggested that this year’s Bitcoin bull cycle is more reminiscent of 2013 than it was in 2017, thanks to the veracity of May’s price drop.

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2013 and 2017 finally saw a two-level race at an all-time high. The first peak was followed by a large drawdown in each case, which then reversed to create a race to a new peak.

PlanB still believes $ 100,000 per Bitcoin will emerge this year, while stock-to-flow predicts an average price of $ 100,000 or $ 288,000 by 2024.

Related: Bitcoin Falls Below $ 36,000 As Century-old Financial Model Predicts Big BTC Crash

Earlier this week, he referred to two key Daily Moving Averages (DMAs) as a potential springboard for a rally in the coming months.

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“If the June close will be $ 54,000 (or more) and July and August will also be $ 54,000 (or more), then 50 DMA will bounce off 200 DMA and stay above 200 DMA,” he said. -he declares. tweeted.

“So a nice short squeeze and a V-shaped bounce to $ 54,000 (+ 69%) would result in a rebound scenario.”

BTC / USD 200 days, 50 day moving average, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and months up to half. Source: PlanB / Twitter