Can Enphase Energy Stock maintain its strong outperformance?

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Enphase Energy Inc. stock (NASDAQ
NDAQ
: ENPH) is up 12% in the past two weeks (10 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500, which fell about 1% over the period. If you look at the change over the past five days and also a month, the stock has bounced back 1.4% and 6.5% respectively, vastly outperforming the broader market both times. Enphase had reported strong Q2 revenues in July 22, with revenues growing from $316 million in Q2 from $21 to $530 million in Q2 22. Despite a significant increase in COGS and operating expenses, the company’s revenue increased from $59.4 million to $94 million during this period. In addition, a sharp decline in interest expense offset an increase in the effective tax rate, and earnings per share rose from $0.29 in Q2 ’21 to $0.57 in Q2 ’22.

Now, is Enphase Energy
ENPH
is the stock ready to continue its outperformance or can we expect a pullback? We believe there is a decent 57% chance of ENPH stock rising in the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the past ten years. See our analysis on ENPH Stock Chance of Rise. For more information on the company’s historical returns and comparison with peers, see: Enphase Energy Supply Return.

Twenty-one days: ENPH 6.5%, vs. S&P 500 -8%; Outperformed market

(47% probability event; 57% probability of increase in the next 21 days)

  • ENPH stock 6.5% won over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 8%
  • A change of 6.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 47% probability event that occurred 1175 times out of 2,514 in the past 10 years
  • Of these 1,175 cases, the stock has seen a positive move 668 times in the next twenty-one trading days
  • This points to a 57% chance the stock will rise in the next twenty-one trading days

Ten days: ENPH 12%, vs. S&P 500 -0.9%; Outperformed market

(27% probability event; 59% probability of increase in the next 10 days)

  • ENPH stock 12% won over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.9%
  • A change of 12% or more over ten trading days is a 27% probability event, which has occurred 672 times out of 2,514 in the past 10 years
  • Of these 672 cases, the stock has seen a positive move 394 times in the next ten trading days
  • This points to a 59% chance the stock will rise in the next ten trading days

Five days: ENPH 1.4%, vs. S&P500 -0.8%; Outperformed market

(50% probability event; 55% probability of increase in the next five days)

  • ENPH stock rose 1.4% over a five-day trading period ending 9/14/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell 0.8% over the period.
  • A change of 1.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 50% probability event, which has occurred 1247 times out of 2515 in the past 10 years
  • Of these 1,247 cases, the stock has seen a positive move 692 times in the next five trading days
  • This points to a 55% chance the stock will rise in the next five trading days

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