Christianity loses majority status in US by 2070, according to Pew model


  • Of the four scenarios predicted by Pew, three show Christians to have fallen below 50% of the U.S. population by 2070.
  • In the most plausible scenario, per Pew, the non-religious population will make up 48% of the US by 2070.
  • In the most plausible scenario, Christians will make up 39% of the population by 2070.

Projections indicate that Christians could lose majority status in the United States by 2070, according to models released Tuesday by the Pew Research Center.

The study modeled four different hypothetical scenarios, each representing a different degree of “switching,” which the Pew Research Center defined “as a change between the religion a person grew up in (in childhood) and their current religious identity (in adulthood). age). ).”

Pew said his models examined one scenario in which switching rates remain the same, two scenarios in which switching rates accelerate, and one in which switching rates stop completely.

The number of Americans who identify as agnostic, atheist or not affiliated with a particular religion has grown dramatically since the 1990s, according to the research center.

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Earlier:One in four Americans identifies as ‘None’. Why do millions leave organized religion?

Each scenario starts with the religious makeup of the country in 2020, as estimated by the Pew Research Center: 64% Christian, 30% non-affiliated, and 6% members of all other faiths.

In three out of four scenarios, Christians will make up less than 50% of the country by 2070.

Scenario No. 1: Christian population no longer majority, retains plurality

In this scenario, young Americans (aged 15-29) are leaving Christianity and joining Christianity and other religions at a similar rate as in recent years. According to the Pew Research Center, the proportion of Christians decreases by a few percentage points each generation, eventually falling below 50% by 2060 and reaching 46% by 2070. Yet they represent the largest religious group in the country.


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