Covid resurgence could derail Indian economy: Oxford Economics

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The resurgence of the coronavirus in India has raised fears that the economic recovery is derailed, according to the latest Oxford Economics report.

State governments reluctant to reintroduce strict lockdowns, the thinktank’s report estimates that while the economic impact will be much less severe than the second quarter of the previous fiscal year, the growth momentum in the first quarter of the current fiscal year could be slower.

High-frequency data points to slowing growth momentum in the first quarter, which is already built into our forecast, he says.

However, at the same time, these indicators have yet to show a strong deceleration in response to the rapid increase in the number of Covid cases.

In another revealing observation, the report says that compared to international experience, the vaccination rate is far below the level required to contain the virus itself.

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In addition, the second wave will probably be more severe.

The think tank observed that if the health situation deteriorates significantly and tighter restrictions are reimposed, it will threaten their baseline forecast for the first half of the current year.

State governments reluctant to reintroduce strict lockdowns, the thinktank’s report estimates that while the economic impact will be much less severe than the second quarter of the previous fiscal year, the growth momentum in the first quarter of the current fiscal year could be slower.

High-frequency data points to slowing growth momentum in the first quarter, which is already built into our forecast, he says.

However, at the same time, these indicators have yet to show a strong deceleration in response to the rapid increase in the number of Covid cases.

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In another revealing observation, the report says that compared to international experience, the vaccination rate is far below the level required to contain the virus itself.

In addition, the second wave will probably be more severe.

The think tank observed that if the health situation deteriorates significantly and tighter restrictions are reimposed, it will threaten their baseline forecast for the first half of the current year.

The resurgence of the coronavirus in India has raised fears that the economic recovery is derailed, according to the latest Oxford Economics report.

State governments reluctant to reintroduce strict lockdowns, the thinktank’s report estimates that while the economic impact will be much less severe than the second quarter of the previous fiscal year, the growth momentum in the first quarter of the current fiscal year could be slower.

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High-frequency data points to slowing growth momentum in the first quarter, which is already built into our forecast, he says.

However, at the same time, these indicators have yet to show a strong deceleration in response to the rapid increase in the number of Covid cases.

In another revealing observation, the report says that compared to international experience, the vaccination rate is far below the level required to contain the virus itself. In addition, the second wave will probably be more severe.

The think tank observed that if the health situation deteriorates significantly and tighter restrictions are reimposed, it will threaten their baseline forecast for the first half of the current year.

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