Dogecoin, the main indicator of the alternate season?

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Dogecoin (DOGE) has been the poster child for altcoins for a very long time, especially since it has been around since 2013, making it one of the oldest cryptocurrencies in existence. Inflationary memory money quickly became synonymous with wild price pumps due to its low face value and the concentration of its holdings.

This unprecedented history of short-term price increases has led some investors to use the DOGE price as a leading indicator of an altcoin season.

But it probably makes sense. After all, Dogecoin is nothing more than a coin based on memes. There has been no development activity for the past two years, and few of its users are running a full node.

Historic Dogecoin pumps since 2017. Source: TradingView

Also note how incredible price movements have been the norm rather than the exception for Dogecoin over the past four years. There were 16 weekly performances above 30% and six of them showed gains of 100% or more.

To date, the top 693 addresses retain 79.2% of the total DOGEs in circulation. This astonishing statistic has even been a big source of criticism from Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX. It’s worth pointing out that the most recent price spikes have been directly linked to Musk’s memes and tweets revolving around Dogecoin.

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However, for it to be argued that Dogecoin is indeed an altcoin season indicator, there has to be some evidence that such pumps precede the positive performance of the market as a whole.

Total market capitalization of altcoin as of July 2020 compared to Dogecoin, USD. Source: TradingView

On July 7, 2020, DOGE posted a 73% gain in less than 36 hours. Although the effect didn’t last more than three days, altcoins started to gain in value a few weeks later. The altcoin market cap has grown from $ 105 billion to $ 130 billion, an increase of 24% in just 10 days.

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Total market capitalization of altcoin as of November 2020 compared to Dogecoin, USD. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the November 2020 pump tells a different story as DOGE trod the path of the remaining altcoins. Additionally, no altcoin season followed in the next few weeks, with market cap stabilizing below $ 210 billion.

Total market capitalization of altcoin in early 2021 versus Dogecoin, USD. Source: TradingView

On the other hand, the incredible 182% DOGE pump of early 2021 that took place over two days marked another season. Some 36 hours later, the altcoin market cap started a 50% rally, taking it to $ 340 billion.

An even more substantial effect took place on January 18, as the currency itself climbed more than 1000%. Three days later, the altcoin market cap began a 60% rally to $ 560 billion.

However, the most recent activity could provide different interpretations, as the altcoin rally started about three weeks before Dogecoin aimed for new highs.

Total market capitalization of altcoin in April 2021 vs Dogecoin, USD. Source: TradingView

Therefore, considering the five pumps analyzed, there has been three pieces of evidence of the Dogecoin pump leading up to a wider altcoin rally. However, this incidence ratio could be sufficient for most adventurous traders.

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It should be noted that comparing these results with other major altcoins would be a good idea before concluding that the memes-based coin is in fact a good indicator of the alternate season. If Dogecoin lives up to its fame amid an assault of positive securities, then the new all-time high of $ 0.61 is a harbinger of positive momentum for altcoins.

Meanwhile, TBEN Markets Pro’s VORTECS ™ data began to detect a bullish outlook for DOGE on April 29, ahead of the recent price hike.

The VORTECS ™ Score, exclusive to TBEN, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trade volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity .

VORTECS ™ score (green) against the DOGE price. Source: TBEN Markets Pro

As shown in the graph above, the VORTECS ™ score started climbing on April 29th and peaked at 72 before rising to 77 on May 3rd. It should be noted that the VORTECS ™ score peaked approximately 12 hours before the price climbed 45%. to a new all-time high at $ 0.61.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of TBEN. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You need to do your own research when making a decision.