Electric vehicles will reduce global gasoline and diesel consumption, but demand for other refined petroleum products in the aerospace, marine and petrochemical industries may remain high due to urbanization.
A global move to electrify road transport to reduce carbon emissions could halve the demand for global oil refining capacity by 2050, according to consultancy Rystad Energy.
“In the future, by 2050 we will reach a level very close to 90% of electrification,” said Mukesh Sahdev, senior vice president and head of downstream at Rystad Energy, adding that this scenario would result in probably a 50% drop in global refining capacity. .
Electric vehicles will reduce global gasoline and diesel consumption, but demand for other refined petroleum products in the aviation, marine and petrochemical sectors may remain high due to urbanization which will pose a challenge. challenge to the refining sector, Mukesh said.
“How are we going to meet these demands with a 50% reduction in refining capacity? I think that’s an important signal that we could have a lot of shorts in the sectors that come with the demand,” he said. -he adds.
“This will lead to a significant rationalization of downstream assets across the entire supply chain.”
For example, cokers, which upgrade units used to produce gasoline and diesel, should shift their production to produce more petroleum coke for graphite in batteries, he said, adding that the processing crude directly into petrochemicals is another trend.
Nevertheless, global demand for oil could increase in the short term. Consulting firm expects pent-up oil demand from COVID-19 pandemic to push global crude processing to 80.1 million barrels per day in second half of 2021, as refiners maximize production of gasoline.
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