Fantasy Football Six-Pack: Some futures look bright, others unclear after Division Round losses


Another week, another collection of eliminated playoff squads. Let’s take a look under the hood of each team that left the podium in the division round…

51.6 Gabriel Davis caught only 51.6 percent of his regular-season goals (48 of 93), the lowest percentage of any wide receiver who saw at least 50 chances. Davis also had one of the highest aDOTs in the NFL (15.3), so it’s not like his targets were all layups. But there’s really no great way to run a drop marred season in which a primary receiver barely forfeited 50 percent of his chances despite playing with an elite QB. Six of Davis’ 93 targets were intercepted this year, which is brutal. The Davis highlight reel is a lot of fun, but not every route is a gem.

17 — On Jacksonville’s last eight games (including postseason) after retiring from the team in November, Trevor Lawrence threw 17 touchdown passes. That was the second-highest TD total of any quarterback during that stretch, trailing only Roof Prescott (20). Of Calvin Ridley joining the side in 2023 and continuity elsewhere in attack, Lawrence heads for a 35-scoring season. He’s a dart thrower with a ridiculous touch…

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The Jags clearly still have gaps to fill, but this team has top talent in the place that is hardest to fill.

7.36 — This is the percentage of Ezekiel Elliott‘s carries that resulted in gains of 10 or more yards, and, uh… it’s not great. Zeke was ranked 10th in the NFL in total rushing attempts (231), but he tied for No. 27 in runs over 10 yards. He was a fairly fair between-the-tackles hammer for Dallas, but his ability to play big has clearly diminished and he plays almost no role as a receiver these days (23 goals). He recorded a career low of 3.9 yards per touch in 2022. Elliott averaged just 2.7 YPC over the final four games of the regular season after RT Terence Steele was sidelined with an ACL injury. Elliott reportedly is willing to take a pay cut to stay with Dallasbut of course the details can still get messy on that front.

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It’s hard to imagine Ezekiel Elliott playing a major fantasy role next season, even if he’s back with the Cowboys. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

6.6Evan Engram set new career highs in both receptions (73) and receiving yards (766) at Jacksonville this season, and he was outstanding after the catch, averaging 6.6 YAC/REC. That was the fifth-best score of any tight end, putting him just ahead George Kittel (6.5) and Travis Kelce (6.0). Fantasy managers may not consider Engram the league’s most reliable pass catcher, but he hit 74.5 percent of his goals in 2022. He’s a free agent going into 2023, but he pretty clearly wants to stay with the Jaguars and the coaching staff clearly want him back. Assuming he re-signs with Jacksonville, we can expect similar statistical output, but perhaps with an increase in touchdowns (see above).

2.91James Cook and Devin Singletar combined to average 2.91 yards after contact per attempt this season, which is a perfect mid-pack and stealthy rate. As a team, the Bills don’t seem to have a rushing problem — they ranked seventh in the league this season (139.5 YPG) — but this ground game was backed up by another 120-plus carries and 762 yards from Josh Allen. It may not be the worst idea for this team to invest resources in running backs, especially given the quality of this year’s free-agent and draft classes.

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1.06Daniel Jones was intercepted on just 1.06 percent of his pass attempts this year, the lowest percentage in the league and one of the lowest in NFL history. Five picks in 472 tries is impressive in any circumstance, but it’s insanely good when you consider that two of his most targeted receivers were kick returners (Richie James) and an addition for interim exemption (Isaiah Hodgins). Jones has transformed himself from a player who would routinely endanger the ball to a man who actually never self-destructs. He’s been a little light on passing scores this season (15), but it’s not like he pitched to Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. Jones also ran for 708 yards and seven scores, shattering previous career highs. Someone (presumably the Giants) will have to pay this man.

More division round analysis


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