Honda Motor stock (NYSE: HMC) has fallen about 2.7% to $ 30 in the past five trading days. In comparison, Trefis Honda Rating is $ 38 indicating a potential increase of about 25%. Meanwhile, the broad S & P500 fell 3% over the same time frame. Now, will the company continue on its downtrend over the next few weeks or is a stock price hike imminent? According to the machine learning engine Trefis, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price using several years of historical stock data, HMC’s average stock returns are approximately 1.7% during the period of one month (twenty-one trading days) following the decline 2.9% in one week (five trading days). But how would those numbers change if you want to hold HMC shares for a longer or shorter period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Honda Motor stock expected return. You can test the chances of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, a month, or even a single day!
MACHINE LEARNING MOTOR – try it yourself: IF The HMC share has moved by -5% over five trading days, SO over the next 21 trading days, the HMC share moves mean 2.1% with a probability of 69.4% of a positive return over this period.
Some fun scenarios, FAQs and explanation of Honda engine stock movements
Question 1: Is the average return on Honda Motors shares higher after a decline?
Case 1: Honda Motors stock drops -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Honda Motors stock increases by 5% or more in a week
Is the average yield on Honda Motors shares higher in the next month after Case 1 or Case 2?
The HMC stock fares better after case 1, with an average return of 2.2% over the next month (21 trading days) in case 1 (where the stock just suffered a loss of 5 % in the previous week), against an average return of 0% for case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days in case 1, and an average return of only 0.5% for case 2, as detailed in our dashboard. which details the average return of the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how the Honda Motors stock is likely to behave after a specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
If you buy and hold stock in Honda Motors, you would expect that over time short-term fluctuations will cancel each other out and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is by. elsewhere solid.
Overall, according to data and calculations from the machine learning engine Trefis, patience absolutely pays for most actions!
For the HMC share, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days are detailed in the table below, along with the returns of the S & P500:
You can test drive the engine to see what this table looks like for Honda Motors after a larger loss in the week, month, or last quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait a while?
The average return after a rise is naturally lower than that after a fall, as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, however, if a stock has won in the last few days, you’d better avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
The returns of HMC over the next N days after a 5% change in the last five trading days are detailed in the table below, along with the returns of the S & P500:
It’s powerful enough to test the trend for Honda Motors stock for yourself by changing the entries in the charts above.
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