Trevor Lawrence’s late-game heroics helped save our betting ticket on Saturday, splitting our two picks in the opening bouts of the Wild Card Weekend.
Sunday’s Wild Card action features three matchups, with an interesting combination between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills scheduled to kick things off.
Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Buffalo’s Highmark Stadium, with temperatures expected to dip just below freezing by game time.
Double-digit spreads can be intimidating in playoff situations, but bettors are showing little hesitation in throwing their money at the Buffalo Bills, pushing the lineup up nearly three points over the course of the week.
NFL odds opened Buffalo as a -11 favorite, but the line now sits at -13.5 on most betting sites as of Sunday morning. The game’s over/under has remained relatively firm, with the 43.5 opening line still available at most of the stores we reviewed.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills betting via BetOnline AG
Dolphins vs Bills Money Line
Dolphins vs. BillsPoint Spread
- Dolphins +13.5
- Jaguars -13.5
Dolphins vs Bills bet total
Tua Tagovailoa’s absence was the biggest storyline leading into the weekend, and Miami’s decision to start Skylar Thompson at quarterback was the main driver of the spread we saw all week.
Tagovailoa led the Finns over the Bills in Week 3 of the season (21-19) and the young QB proved to have the versatility and skills to keep a questionable Buffalo secondary on the strings.
Unfortunately, concussion protocol leaves Tua sidelined, and with backup Teddy Bridgewater dealing with a dislocated little finger, Thompson sees his number being called.
Thompson appeared in seven games this season, but the rookie tossed only for a single touchdown with three interceptions over the span. His 57.1% completion percentage is slightly increased from his 20 of 31 appearances against the Jets, where he averaged less than 5 yards per attempt and failed to find the endzone.
Buffalo allows the second fewest points in the NFL (17.9 ppg), and to say that Thompson has struggled to throw offense would be an exaggeration at best.
There’s a possibility the Dolphins could find a few breakaway attempts, but I think it’s highly unlikely that this team will score more than two touchdowns before being bounced out of the playoffs.
While Miami has nothing but question marks below center, Buffalo couldn’t be more confident in quarterback Josh Allen taking their shots.
Allen threw for four touchdowns in Buffalo’s Week 15’s 32-29 victory over the Finns, and his playoff numbers suggest the team should easily reach 30 points.
With Buffalo predicting to score at or just above 30 points and questioning Miami’s ability to score more than 14, we’re closing in on a final score that’s right in line with the total of 43.5 bets on offer.
The smarter play here is to take the bills and the steep number as Miami is likely to fall behind early and be in a position to play risky and careless football to stay in the game, leading to loss of revenue and quick in-and-out from situations.
The Buffalo Bills start their playoff campaign with a bang, sending the Dolphins beaten and bruised back to South Florida.
Bet Buffalo -13.5