Walt Disney Stock (NYSE: DIS) has risen an impressive 54% in the past six months (126 trading days) and is currently trading at $ 190 per share. The recent recovery in DIS stock has been driven by the strong performance of its streaming business, Disney +, as demand for streaming has been high during the pandemic. Disney + is able to boast a total worldwide subscriber count of 95 million in just a year and a half since its launch. To put it in perspective, Netflix reached 200 million subscribers after a decade of operations; at the current rate, Disney is likely to reach the milestone is a much shorter time. In addition to the strong demand for streaming, with the gradual lifting of lockdowns and the successful rollout of vaccines, market expectations for traditional Disney businesses, such as cable and theme parks, which pick up in the coming quarters are also growing. high. This sparked strong investor interest in DIS stock, which led to an impressive rise in its price. But will Disney stock continue on its upward trajectory over the next few weeks, or is a stock correction more likely?
According to the machine learning engine Trefis, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price data over the past ten years, DIS stock returns average close to 5% then three months (63 trading days) after experiencing a 54% increase in the previous six month period (126 trading days). Notably, however, the stock is likely to underperform the S & P500 over the next three months, with an expected return that would be 1.5% lower compared to the S & P500.
But how would those numbers change if you want to hold DIS shares for a shorter or longer period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine learning to test the chances of rising DIS stocks after a drop and vice versa. You can test the chances of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, a month, or even a single day!
MACHINE LEARNING MOTOR – try it yourself:
IF The DIS stock has evolved by -5% over five trading days, THEN Over the next 21 trading days, the DIS share moves an average of 2%, implying a return almost in line with that of the S & P500.
More importantly, there is a 58% probability of a positive feedback over the next 21 trading days and 37% chance positive excess return after a variation of -5% over five trading days.
Some fun scenarios, FAQs and to give an idea of DIS stock movements:
Question 1: is the average return of Walt Disney
Consider two situations,
Case 1: Walt Disney’s stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Walt Disney’s stock increases by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return on Walt Disney stock higher in the next month after case 1 or 2?
DIS stock fares better after case 2, with an average yield of 2% during the following month (21 trading days) in case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a loss of 5% compared to the previous week), against an average return of 2.6% for case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days in Case 1, and an average return of only 0.5% for Case 2, as detailed in our dashboard. which details the average return of the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Walt Disney stock is likely to behave after a specific gain or loss over a period of time.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
If you buy and hold Walt Disney stock, it is expected that over time the short-term fluctuations will cancel out and the positive long-term trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and calculations from Trefis’ machine learning engine, patience absolutely pays for most of the stock!
For DIS stock, returns over the next N days after a variation of -5% over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S & P500:
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait a while?
The average return after a rise is generally lower than after a fall, as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, however, if a stock has won in the last few days, you’d better avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
DIS returns over the next N days after a variation of 5% over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S & P500:
It is powerful enough to test the trend of Walt Disney stocks yourself by changing the entries in the charts above.
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