The United States’ stock markets and crypto markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term as traders remain nervous about the size of the next rate hike by the Federal Reserve on September 20 and 21. While the majority is in favor of a 75 basis point rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, some analysts expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 100 basis points for the first time since the early 1980s.
Many expect Bitcoin (BTC) to continue its decline and dip below the June low in the future. While anything is possible in the markets, the markets often don’t oblige the majority. If the Fed doesn’t surprise the markets, traders who may be cautious and on the sidelines can jump right back in, resulting in a brief recovery of relief.
Bear markets offer investors the opportunity to accumulate over the long term. There is no point in hitting the bottom, which is why traders may look for accumulation during periods of extreme pessimism. A strong stomach is needed to overcome volatility, but those who do will likely benefit when the next bull run begins.
Can Bitcoin and altcoins make a reversal or is a deeper decline possible? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin has been in a strong downtrend for several months now. Buyers started a recovery from the June low at $17,622 pushing the price above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), but were unable to sustain the higher levels.
The bulls again tried to push the price above the 200-week SMA last week, but the bears held out. This shows that bears are vigorously defending the 200-week SMA. Therefore, this level becomes an important resistance to watch on the upside.
On the downside, the bulls are expected to aggressively defend the support at $17,622. The first sign of strength is a break and close above $20,000. That suggests a range-bound action for the BTC/USDT pair between $17,622 and $25,211.
A trend change will be signaled after buyers drive the price above $25,211. The pair could then rise to $32,000.
Conversely, if bears sink and keep the price below $17,622 it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $14,000.
The bears have defended the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) ($1,732) for the past few weeks. This suggests that sentiment in Ether (ETH) remains bearish and that traders are selling on rallies.
The ETH/USDT pair sharply declined from the 20-week EMA last week, reaching the 200-week SMA ($1,283). Buyers are expected to vigorously defend this level.
The bulls will have to push and hold the price above the 20-week EMA to signal that the bears may lose their grip. A possible trend change could be signaled at a break above $2,030. Until then, the bears will likely sell at every rally.
If the price moves below the 200-week SMA, sales may increase and bears will try to pull the price towards the June low at $881. This is an important level for the bulls to defend as a break below it can lead to panic selling.
BNB is one of the outperformers of the major cryptocurrencies as it trades well above its 200-week SMA ($175). Buyers pushed the price above the 20-week EMA ($295), but they were unable to build on this strength. The bears halted the recovery at $338 and pulled the price back below the 20-week EMA.
Since then, the bears have thwarted several bulls’ attempts to push the price back above the 20-week EMA. This indicates bears are selling the rallies to the 20-week EMA. The bears will try to sink the BNB/USDT pair towards the 200-week SMA, which is likely to attract strong buying by the bulls.
The first sign of strength is a break above the 20-week EMA. That could pave the way for a $338 retest. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to envision the start of another upward move.
Ripple (XRP) has been consolidating in a downtrend for the past few weeks. Buyers tried to push the price above the range’s USD 0.41 resistance last week, but bears successfully defended the level.
The sellers will try to pull the price towards the support at $0.30. This remains the important level to watch as if bears drop the price below USD 0.30, the XRP/USDT pair could enter the next part of the downtrend. The pair could then fall as low as $0.24 and later as low as $0.17.
The 20-week EMA is leveling off, indicating that selling pressure could ease. If the price bounces back from $0.30, the pair could stay in the range for a few more days. Buyers will need to push and hold the price above the 200-week SMA ($0.48) to signal that the pair may have bottomed out.
Cardano (ADA) has been trading below the moving averages for the past few weeks. Attempts by the bulls to push the price above the 200-week SMA ($0.57) sold well by the bears.
While the bulls have maintained the $0.40 support for the past few weeks, failure to push the price above the 200-week SMA indicates bears are selling during rallies. The bears will try to push the price below the support to $0.40. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The next support on the downside is at USD 0.33 and then USD 0.28.
If bulls want to avert this catastrophe, they will need to quickly push the price above the 200-week SMA. The bears may try again to pose a strong challenge at $0.70, but if bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could signal the start of another uptrend. The pair could see gains first towards the 50-week SMA ($0.96) and then towards $1.25.
Solana (SOL) rebounded from the low of $26 in June, but the recovery was cut near $48. The bulls’ failure to push the price towards the 20-week EMA ($46) suggests bears are selling on small rallies.
The bears will try to pull the price towards the crucial support of $26, which has not been tested since June. If this support breaks, selling could gain momentum and the SOL/USDT pair could drop as low as USD 20. The bulls are likely to aggressively defend this level.
Alternatively, if the price rises from current levels or bounces back from USD 26, the bulls will again try to drive the pair towards the USD 48 overhead resistance. Buyers will have to overcome this obstacle to signal the start of a new uptrend. The pair could then attempt a rally to $78.
Dogecoin (DOGE) recovered from $0.05 in June and hit the 20-week EMA ($0.08) in August, but the bulls were unable to push the price above this resistance. The bears defended the level aggressively and are trying to push the price back to $0.05.
If the $0.05 support breaks, the DOGE/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The next support at the bottom is at USD 0.04, but if bulls fail to defend this level, the sell could increase and the pair could collapse below USD 0.01.
There is a glimmer of hope for the bulls as the RSI tries to form a positive divergence. This suggests that selling pressure could ease. If the price bounces back from $0.05, the bulls will try again to push the pair above $0.09. If that happens, the pair could rise towards the 50-week SMA ($0.13).
Related: XRP Price Risks 30% Drop Despite Ripple’s Legal Earnings Outlook
Polkadot (DOT) has been consolidating between $6 and $10 for the past few weeks. Typically, traders buy the dips within a range at the support and sell near the overhead resistance.
If the price bounces back strongly from the $6 support, it suggests buyers are piling up on dips. That could keep the DOT/USDT pair in range for a while yet. The longer the price trades within a range, the stronger its eventual breakout will be.
If buyers push the price above $10, it suggests that the downtrend could end. That could pave the way for a possible rally to the 50-week SMA ($19).
Conversely, if the price drops below the $6 support, the pair could enter the next part of the downtrend. The pair could then fall towards the $3.50 to $4 support zone.
Polygon (MATIC) rose sharply from $0.31 in June and broke above the 20-week EMA ($0.87), but buyers were unable to extend the recovery. The bears halted the relief rally at $1.05 and pulled the price back below the 20-week EMA.
The bulls again tried to push and hold the price above the 20-week EMA last week, but the bears did not give in. They sold aggressively and pushed the price towards the immediate support of $0.72. If this support breaks, the MATIC/USDT pair could slide towards USD 0.45 and then USD 0.31.
On the contrary, if the price rises from current levels and moves above the 20-week EMA, the pair could challenge overhead resistance at $1.05. A break and close above this level suggests that the downtrend may be over. The price could then rise to the 50-week SMA ($1.31) and then to $1.75.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) rose sharply from its June low and surged above the 20-week EMA ($0.00013) in August. However, the breakout proved to be a bear trap as the price fell from $0.000018 and slipped back below the 20-week EMA.
While the price traded below the 20-week EMA, the bulls have not allowed the SHIB/USDT pair to retest the June low at $0.000007. This indicates that buyers are trying to hit a higher low.
The first sign of strength is a pause and closes above the 20-week EMA. The pair could then rise to $0.000018. If bulls drive the price above this resistance, it suggests a possible trend change. The pair could then rise to $0.000030.
This positive opinion can become invalid if the price stays lower and falls below $0.000007. That could drop the pair to $0.000005.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of TBEN. Every investment and trading move involves risks. You should do your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by: HitBTC stock exchange.