With 100 days until the midterm elections, Republicans still seem well positioned to regain control of the House and possibly the Senate, although some recent polls also suggest Democrats can maintain their slim majority.
Democrats struggled to regain control of the House during the 2018 midterm elections under former President Donald Trump. They then managed to regain control of the Senate in the 2020 elections and the Georgia runoff in January 2021, although the Liberal party also lost a significant number of seats in the House. Democrats currently control both Houses of Congress by the narrowest margins — meaning even a handful of losses will be enough to reverse the government’s control of the legislature.
Analysts have predicted for months — based on poll data and recent historical precedent — that Democrats are likely to lose control of the House and possibly the Senate when voters head to the polls on Nov. 8. As President Joe Biden remains highly unpopular, many see this as an indicator that Democrats will also perform poorly.
Which side wins the house?
On Sunday, TBEN News released its 2022 Battleground Tracker, revealing that the GOP is likely to win a significant number of House seats in the upcoming election. The news channel’s tracker currently shows Republicans will win an estimated 16 seats in the House, bringing their total to 230. Meanwhile, the Democrats are predicted to lose those 16 seats, dropping their total to just 205.
News and poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Republicans strongly prefer to regain control of the House as well. The prediction gives the GOP an 83 in 100 chance of winning the majority, compared to 17 in 100 for Democrats.
“Even if the Democrats won all the races that are currently labeled as toss-ups, plus keep all the seats they prefer to win, they still wouldn’t be enough for the number they need for a majority.” says FiveThirtyEight’s analysis. .
Which party will win the Senate?
Democrats seem to have a better chance of retaining control of the Senate and possibly even expanding their majority. FiveThirtyEight’s prediction currently estimates that the party is “somewhat advantaged” in maintaining control of the upper house of Congress.
The site’s current forecast gives Democrats a 56 in 100 chance of winning the Senate majority, while Republicans have only a 44 in 100 chance. “The Senate race is close and in a few key races Republicans have selected weak candidates, eroding their chances of taking the chamber in November,” the analysis said.
What do recent polls show?
Recent general congressional poll data has been mixed, with some suggesting Democrats favor more voters, while many others show the GOP ahead. The margins also vary widely. The current Real Clear Politics average of recent national generic congressional vote polls shows Republicans are less than a point ahead.
However, a poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports from July 24 to 28 shows Republicans have a 5-point lead. That survey had the GOP at 46 percent and the Democrats at just 41 percent. It included 2,500 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent.
Another recent poll conducted by USA today/Suffolk University showed Democrats a 4-point lead from July 22-25. That survey had Democrats backed by 44 percent of registered voters, compared with 40 percent who supported Republicans. Notably, the same poll conducted in mid-June showed the Democrats and Republicans tied at 40 percent, meaning the Democrats got 4 points.
The survey included 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.
Survey results from The economist/YouGov held Democrats 6 points ahead of Republicans from July 23 to 26. That poll found that the Liberal party had 44 percent of the support, compared to 38 percent for the Conservative party. Again, that marked a shift in Democrats’ favor. Earlier this month, the results were 43 percent for Democrats and 40 percent for Republicans, meaning the Democrats got 3 points.
The poll included 1,311 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points.
It’s important to point out that generic congressional votes are an inaccurate way of gauging which party is more likely to win in November. Each House race is decided in an individual district with its own specific dynamic, while Senate races are decided by state. However, the national sentiments captured in these polls suggest that the country is fairly evenly split between the two dominant parties.
What about historical precedent?
The University of Virginia Center for Politics released an analysis of midterm elections dating back to 1946. The report found that the political party of a president who sits in the White House loses, on average, more than 26 seats in the House during the interim term of their term of office. first term. The biggest loss was 64 seats and the biggest gain was only eight seats.
That analysis showed correlated results in the Senate. The president’s party lost an average of more than three seats in the Senate during the midterms. The biggest loss was 13 seats and the biggest gain was just four seats.