TBEN Poll in Pennsylvania holds great promise for Democrats in three similar states

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Yesterday, the New York Times reported that Republicans panicked over the dwindling donations they are seeing across the country, especially as Democrats vastly exceed all expectations. While money doesn’t always indicate enthusiasm or candidate perception, it certainly can, and now we’re seeing hard numbers in a TBEN News Poll from Pennsylvania, a state where two extreme Trump picks are in a race to the bottom in an election that a normal Republican could or even should win. You might feel even better as TBEN’s polling station is highly respected as one of the most accurate in the industry.

From TBEN News:

Democrats have the edge on Pennsylvania battlefield as GOP candidates haven’t closed the sale with Republican voters.

In the US Senate race, Democrat John Fetterman holds an 11-point lead over Republican Mehmet Oz, 47%-36%, in a TBEN News poll released Thursday. Three percent support independent candidate Everett Stern and 13% support someone else or are undecided.

And from the same TBEN News story:

In the race to replace Governor Tom Wolf, Keystone voters back Democrat Josh Shapiro on Republican Doug Mastriano by 50-40 Percent Margin.

Far more supporters of Shapiro (69%) are more enthusiastic to support him than Mastriano’s about him (49%) and in general more voters have a favorable opinion of Shapiro (51% favourable, 34% unfavorable) than Mastriano (38 %-48%).

Mastriano’s poll is probably a little less indicative of the “Trump impact,” as Mastriano’s close association with overt and overt, disgusting anti-Semitism has come to light in the past month. There may be a unique element to Shapiro’s lead.

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But the Fetterman/Oz poll seems more reliably indicative of the typical Trump-elected extremist MAGAs against solid Democrats in “purplish” states. Yes, Oz suffers from the carpet sagging label, but in regards to voting MAGA and not saying anything humiliating, Oz seems to be “good enough” for most Republicans to gag and pull the lever. But the numbers show they don’t want to go that far, especially against a solid, very sympathetic Democratic opponent in John Fetterman.

Every race is unique, but this poll is welcome news in Ohio, where JD Vance plummets, described as “campaigning the worst possible,” as centrist Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan campaigns hard across the state and exceeds expectations. Ryan has been described as the ‘type’ of Democrat who can win in Ohio.

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Georgia is very unique in Georgia. Herschel Walker can’t figure out the number of children he’s fathered, refuses to argue (probably his smartest move), and has had bad revelations after bad revelations, all the while saying things that sound insane because they’re insane. That would be bad enough. But Walker is unlucky to take on Senator Ralph Warnock, a man who even Republicans will reluctantly admit is as good as anyone in the Senate and a man who is as deeply intellectual as he is spiritual. Although the polls were closed in May, most of the “revelations” and especially insane statements from Walker had yet to come out. An expert on MSNBC said yesterday that “if the race were held today, Warnock would win.”

And then there’s Arizona. Trump pick and brash extremist of extreme MAGAs, Blake Masters, is a dream candidate for the Kari Lakes of the world (Masters soars but hasn’t won the primaries yet), but Masters scares normal people. Like Walker, if Masters wins the primaries, he must defeat the all-American man, legendary astronaut and hall of fame husband of Gabby Giffords, Senator Mark Kelly, who won the seat in 2020.

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How much can the three other “potential McConnell nightmares” that Donald Trump brought you bear away from the Pennsylvania numbers? Normally you would say “almost nothing”, but the dynamics are so similar in each state that it is meaningful, although the numbers will be different.

Plus, the vote will be more about anger over women’s rights, a SCOTUS out of control, and Trump fatigue/fear that — coupled with the money, these numbers bode well for the Pennsylvania candidates and the “other three” similar races.

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