The best NFL picks, props and parlay for Sunday’s Wild Card games

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The Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills will both face backup quarterbacks as they host Wild Card Weekend games on Sunday. In NFL playoff odds, that scenario causes the line to lengthen significantly in both games. Buffalo is a 13.5-point pick over the Miami Dolphins, while the Bengals are the 8.5-point pick over the Baltimore Ravens.

When it comes to mind-boggling playoff teams, the Minnesota Vikings top the list. Despite a 13-4 record that won them the NFC North title, the Vikings finished the regular season with a negative point difference. Minnesota is a 3-point home pick over the New York Giants.

Which game is the best bet on the three games of Sunday’s Wild Card Weekend promotion? We’ll look at that, plus some props to play and make a parlay worth considering in the next story.

Bills -13.5 above Dolphins

Josh Allen was a perfect quarterback for the Bills because he lives for the cold weather. The forecast calls for the thermometer to be at 30 degrees when the Bills play host to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday (1 p.m. ET) and that’s right in Allen’s wheelhouse.

He is 18-5 years old and plays games when the temperature is 40 degrees or colder. Double Threat Allen has passed for 5757 yards and 51 TDs in these games, while also rushing for 1235 yards and 10 TDs.

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Meanwhile, in warm weather, the dolphins are 0-8 SU at play when the mercury reaches 40 or lower. Miami is 0-4 SU in the club’s last four away games and 2-3 on the spread over the past five away games.

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The Dolphins entered both regular season games against the Bills, winning 21–19 at home and losing 32–29 at Buffalo as 7-point underdogs. However, each of those games was played with QB1 Tua Tagovailoa under center. Tagovailoa (concussion protocol) is out for this game, as is backup QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee, dislocated finger). Third string Skylar Thompson gets the start. He is 1-1 this season and last week beat the New York Jets to get Miami into the playoffs. But Thompson’s passer score is a mediocre 62.2.

Miami is a #7 seed. Since the NFL expanded the playoffs two years ago, the seventh-seeded teams are 0-4 SU and ATS.

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The Baltimore Ravens also head to Cincinnati (8:15 p.m. ET) and play with their backup QB running the offense. QB1 Lamar Jackson (knee) is out. Second-stringer Tyler Huntley, out of last week’s regular season finale against the Bengals due to a shoulder injury, is back for this game.

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When it comes to deploying props, though, it’s Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow you’ll want to look at. In two games against Baltimore this season, Burrow was held to one WL pass each time. In fact, in 10 of the past 11 games, the Ravens defense has limited the opposition QB to one or less in the TD passing department. Baltimore limits the opposition to 12.2 points per game since Week 13.

Take less than 1.5 TD passes for Burrow at odds of +155.

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As the Vikings hosted the Giants in the regular season, All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson caught 13 passes during Minnesota’s 27–24 win. So was tight end TJ Hockenson.

With the Giants focused on removing Jefferson’s deep ball threat, Vikings QB Kirk Cousins ​​took advantage of the under routes to Hockenson making this coverage available. The longest reception from the big tight end in the game was just 16 yards.

That option is back in this game (4:40pm ET). New York’s game plan will emphasize that Jefferson must not hurt them. Hockenson’s reception aid is set at 4.5 catches, so this one should be a gift. Play the over at -130.

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A Bills-Dolphins Parlay Play

Buffalo should be able to pile up the points against a battered Miami team that limped to the finish 1-5 and is 1-3 this season in games not started by Tagovailoa. That will also make for a potentially tasty parlay of the same game in this match.

Start with Allen’s over 1.5 TD passes prop at -170. In 10 career games against the Dolphins, Allen has never thrown for less than two touchdowns. He is also thrown for at least two scoring antennas in each of Buffalo’s last three games and five of the past six. That includes a four TD pass performance as the Dolphins lost in Buffalo on December 17.

For every TD scorer player, Bills TE Dawson Knox turns into Fort Knox. Lately, betting on him to find the end zone has been like printing money. Knox has caught a WL pass in four consecutive games. Three of those four TDs came in home games and five of Knox’s last six TD catches all came in the red zone, so you know Allen is looking for Knox when the money is on the line. And he is +200 to score a random TD.

Combine these two bets into a parlay of the same game and the payout on a $100 bet would be $459.

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