The Japanese PLD loses seats and keeps a comfortable majority with Komeito (poll)


Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party could lose seats in the House of Representatives in Sunday’s general election, but will retain a comfortable majority with coalition partner Komeito, a TBEN News poll showed on Wednesday.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who took office less than a month ago, is expected to claim a mandate for his COVID-19 and economic policies with such a result. There will be little to no change in the makeup of Cabinet if voters decide to keep the current government, he said in a TV appearance on Tuesday.

The PLD may not retain all of the 276 seats it held in the lower house of parliament, which had 465 seats before the election, while the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, struggles to win. land to add to its 110 seats, according to the poll.

But the LDP and the Komeito together could win more than 261 seats, enough to effectively oversee all the standing committees of the lower house and advance their legislative agenda.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (C, R) clashes with voters after delivering an ethnic speech in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture on October 26, 2021, ahead of the October 31 general election. (TBEN) == TBEN

TBEN News polled approximately 119,000 eligible voters by phone from Saturday to Tuesday. About 40 percent said they had not yet decided how to vote in the single-member constituency portion of the election, indicating the outcome could still tip both ways.

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Kishida pledged to strengthen Japan’s medical system to fight COVID-19 and spur economic growth, while standing firm against China’s growing assertion and strengthening defenses to deal with the northern missile threat. -koreans.

Opposition figures, including CDPJ leader Yukio Edano, say wealth disparities have widened over the nearly nine-year rule of the PLD under Kishida’s predecessors Yoshihide Suga and Shinzo Abe, criticizing the “Abenomics” for raising corporate profits and stock prices, but failed to generate any wage gains.

While the LDP has the advantage in about 200 of the 289 single-member districts, where voters choose from a list of candidates, it faces stiff competition in about 70.

Yukio Edano (C, L), leader of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, clashes with voters in Miyazaki, southwestern Japan, on October 26, 2021, ahead of the general election on October 31 . (TBEN) = = TBEN

Kishida has said he will claim victory if the LDP-led coalition retains a majority or at least 233 seats, a fairly low bar.

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“Just a small change in momentum could mean losing a lot of seats,” he said on a BS Fuji newscast Tuesday night. “It could also mean winning in a landslide. We have to be on our guard every day.”

Kishida said during the show that in principle he plans to keep the members of his cabinet unchanged. “We just started the other day. I need them to get to work.”

The government hopes to gain approval from the Diet for a supplementary budget within the year to fund a COVID-19 stimulus package, he said.

Through proportional representation, whereby parties are allocated seats based on the votes they win in 11 regional blocs, the LDP appears poised to secure nearly the 66 seats it held before disbandment. of the lower house by Kishida on October 14.

The left-wing CDPJ, which has formed an alliance with the Japanese Communist Party and other opposition groups to consolidate the election candidates, is ahead in more than 50 single-member constituencies but will need victories in constituencies within the field of battle to win.

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Meanwhile, the Japan Innovation Party, a right-wing opposition party that aligns with the PLD on issues such as constitutional review, is riding a wave of momentum and could triple its 11 seats, especially if it can earn outside of its base in the western Kansai region of Japan.

The Komeito, which is backed by the secular Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, could end up with more than the 29 seats it held, while the JCP could also increase its 11 seats, according to the survey.

The People’s Democratic Party, which held eight seats before the election, is seeking to keep six per single-member constituency and add a few more through proportional representation, which accounts for 176 of the seats in the lower house.

The anti-establishment Reiwa Shinsengumi party is expected to win at least one seat through proportional representation, while the Social Democratic Party is expected to retain one seat in a single-member constituency.