The data behind Governor Ron DeSantis’ re-election win shows not a politician with national appeal, but a governor who suppressed and discouraged Florida’s Democratic vote.
DeSantis didn’t make a big profit margin because he’s a political force in Florida, but because the Democrats stayed home:
When the popular narrative from the ’22 campaign was that Dems were about to get creamed, many people suggested it was because Dems weren’t talking about the economy enough. But the difference between MI/AZ/PA/NV/GA and FL/NY/CA etc. was not the priority of economic reporting. https://t.co/RSLIttL9sV
— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) January 17, 2023
Turnout among women, younger voters, and voters of color was quite low, in many cases below 2014 levels. Basically, every Dem group had very poor turnout in FL in ’22.
— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) January 17, 2023
DeSantis’ election policing, gerrymandering and voter suppression combined to keep Democrats at home in Florida in 2022. While Democratic turnout soared across the country, Florida was the exception as Governor DeSantis shaped the electorate for his maximum benefit.
Ron DeSantis is 2024 Fool’s Gold
The data suggests that Ron DeSantis constructed a re-election bid to give the impression that he is a strong national candidate. As DeSantis built his buzz for 2024, the Democrats tightened their control in states like Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. There will be no national voter suppression in 2024 because the Democrats control the Senate and the White House.
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Some Republicans are so desperate to believe in a Trump alternative that they’re willing to side with DeSantis, even though Florida’s governor could be an even weaker candidate nationally than a third-round pick from Trump.
At first, it seems that much of DeSantis’ support comes from Republicans who don’t want to lose to Trump again.
The data suggests that unless the Republicans reject a third Trump nomination, Ron DeSantis is the latest in a long line of candidates who look better on paper than they will perform in a presidential election.
Jason is the editor in chief. He is also a White House Press Pole and a congressional correspondent for PoliticianUSA. Jason has a bachelor’s degree in political science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
