It’s a one, two, three for parts of the country after a long hiatus in winter weather that saw many cities report a snow shortage, much to the delight of many.
After a weekend of mostly light to sometimes moderate accumulations in the northern low, the TBEN Forecast Center is tracking the potential for a major storm system to spread snow from Texas to Maine, and on the south side of the system, the likelihood of heavy rain and severe snowfall . again.
Forecast models show moisture will collect over the Rockies and southern plains on Monday, but for many in Texas and Oklahoma, Tuesday appears to be the day when the effects will be most felt.
“A big dip in the jet stream causes that cold Canadian air to crash down and into areas of New Mexico, Texas. The reason this is important is that instead of a coastal layer coming up, it’s going to be that inner layer going through, to be really improved. And so it will bring snow in a big way,” said TBEN Weather meteorologist Steve Bender.
Depending on where the frost line sets up, some places may have heavy snow in store where temperatures are cold enough.
Amarillo, Texas and Oklahoma City are two of the communities whose forecast models show enough cold air for frozen precipitation and accumulating snow.
As the storm system progresses to the northeast, snow will become dominant over parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and upper Ohio Valley by Wednesday.
Most accumulations are expected to remain light, but the TBEN Forecast Center warns there will be a region that could stretch from Missouri through Illinois and into Indiana and Michigan where snow could be quite modest and potentially impact travel .
Due to the system’s trajectory, large portions of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and I-95 corridor will remain snow-free, but precipitation will be included in the liquid variety due to the abundant humidity.
Later on Wednesday and Thursday, the heart of the system is expected to be over the northeast, where there may again be several inches of inland snow and major cities will see mostly rain as temperatures remain too high for accumulating snowfall.
Due to the timing of the event, exact snowfall amounts have yet to be ironed out, but locations from the Catskills to New England’s White Mountains appear to have the heaviest snow likely to be measured in feet, not inches.
Not everyone will see snow: Severe storms possible along the Gulf Coast
The collision of air masses with the cold infiltrating farther south than in previous weeks will help clear the way for what the TBEN Forecast Center says could be an outbreak of severe weather aimed along the Interstate 10 corridor.
Forecast models show the first chance of severe weather will be Tuesday, with possible hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.
The potential threat area extends from Louisiana to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
Due to an active pattern, several of these communities have already seen the threat of severe storms despite the year being only three weeks away.
“This weather pattern of severe weather continues. And next week we’ll be tracking similar conditions again, not only with the severe weather threatening the recovery and cleanup efforts, but also with the rain,” said TBEN Weather meteorologist Brigit Mahoney.
Any additional tornado that forms in January would add to a busy streak that already has the month on track to break records.
The Storm Prediction Center said it received 138 initial reports of tornadoes in the first 20 days of 2023.
An additional wave of moisture could lead to further storm development on Wednesday for areas farther east than Tuesday’s threat zone and could include the Carolinas, Georgia and the Florida peninsula.
In the coming days, the TBEN Forecast Center will narrow down the potential impacts on the East Coast and be better suited to provide detailed snow and severe weather forecasts.
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