Updated chances to win Super Bowl 57 for all four remaining teams

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The NFL’s 2023 Conference Championship games will be played with the Kansas City Chiefs (15-3, 8-1 at home) hosting the Cincinnati Bengals (14-4, 7-3 away) in the AFC and the Philadelphia Eagles ( 15-3, 9 -1 at home) host the San Francisco 49ers (15-4, 5-3 away) in the NFC.

The overall theme of the conference championships is parity. Neither spread is more than a field goal, and the updated Super Bowl futures are razor sharp.

2023 Super Bowl Odds

Team Opportunities Win probability
Heads of Kansas City +230 30.3%
San Francisco 49ers +250 28.6%
Bengal from Cincinnati +250 28.6%
Philadelphia Eagles +260 27.8%

The Chiefs remain favourites, as they progressed to the division round, but at +230 they are only a fraction ahead of the other three teams. The Bengals and 49ers are tied for second favorite at +250, while the Eagles are in the back at +260.

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The implied chance of winning for all four teams is between 27 and 31 percent.

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STATES: AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, MD, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA

Bengals impressive in victory over Bills to set up AFC championship rematch

With all due respect to the Eagles, which we’ll talk about in a moment, the Bengals turned in the most impressive performance of the division round. Cincinnati entered Orchard Park as the 5.5-point underdog to the Bills, but opened up an early 14–0 lead and never looked back.

They outmaneuvered Buffalo nearly 100 yards (412 to 325) in the game and forced the only two turnovers of the game. Their battered offensive line only allowed one sack, a hugely encouraging sign for Bengals fans moving forward. The Bengals o-line missed three starters.

The Cincinnati defense held Buffalo, who entered the game 7–1 at home, to a season-low ten points. After the four minutes of the first quarter, Cincinnati’s lead was never trimmed below seven in their 27-10 victory.

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Kansas City’s victory over Jacksonville was impressive in its own right. The Chiefs never trailed, did not turn the ball and held the ball for 35:01 (to the Jaguars 24:59). They would have been covered as 9.5 point favorites had it not been for a last-minute field goal by the Jags, making it a one-score game.

But the quality of the competition was not the same, nor was the hostility of the environment.

Bengals vs. odds Chiefs for the AFC Championship Game started at Kansas City -2.5, but that was down to KC -1 at publication time.

Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow is 2-0 against the Chiefs in his short career, including a victory in last year’s AFC title game (27-24 OT).

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STATES: AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, MD, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA

Eagles rout Giants while 49ers hold off Cowboys

After Saturday’s Giants/Eagles game, you would have thought the title of “most impressive team” went to the Eagles for the division round. Philadelphia boat-raced New York 28-0 in the first half and cruised to a 38-7 win. They dominated every facet of the game, with offense totaling 416 yards, including a ridiculous 268 on the ground, and defense holding the Giants to just 227.

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The Philly Pass Rush reached Giants QB Daniel Jones five times as “Danny Dimes” went just 15/27 for a paltry 109 yards.

The renewed rivalry between the 49ers and Cowboys was a low-scoring, back-and-forth affair until the fourth quarter. Neither team led by more than a field goal until Christian McCaffrey broke a 9–9 tie with a two-yard touchdown on the first play of the final frame.

Rookie QB Brock Purdy continued to play well enough. Iowa State’s product was 19/29 for 214 yards on the defensive. Importantly, he took just two sacks against the league’s third-best pass rush and threw no interception.

The Eagles opened as two-point favorites over the 49ers in next Sunday’s NFC title game.

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STATES: AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, MD, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA

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