UPDATED: Latest Hurricane Ian estimates from insurance companies plus NFIP


The latest numbers come in at $17.5 billion (as of Nov. 13), not including the Federal Emergency Management Agency estimate of $3.5 billion-$5.3 billion for the National Flood Insurance Program. Including estimates of $4 billion for NFIP, the total including NFIP is just under $22 billion. (The midpoint of FEMA’s range is $4.4 billion, but a media statement indicates the reinsurance program has a $4 billion trigger.)

Because numbers are not available for major national mutuals, such as State Farm, the largest estimates on our list are generally associated with reinsurers and citizens. Excluding NFIP, the largest estimate is Berkshire Hathaway’s $2.7 billion, which includes $600 million for GEICO, $600 million for other primary businesses and $1.5 billion for the reinsurance business.

While Berkshire’s property/casualty reinsurance business accounted for the largest share of the total, reinsurance produced a small profit for the conglomerate, while the GEICO and the rest of the primary business reported combined ratios of about 108.

Hurricane Ian Estimates Loss By Carrier ($Millions)

Date Company Net Reference article
5-10-2022 Citizens Property Insurance Corp. 2,600.0 Will Ian consume the Florida Cat Fund, forcing more back-breaking reinsurance? (insurancejournal.com)
10/12/2022 United Insurance Holdings Corp. 36.4 United Insurance Holdings Corp. announces estimated losses from Hurricane Ian | Business thread
13-10-2022 Heritage insurance holding companies # 40.0 Heritage Provides Estimated Impact of Hurricane Ian – October 13, 2022 (heritagepci.com)
13-10-2022 Progressive Corp. 785.0 Progressive Loses a Bundle: Nearly $2.0 Billion Gross Ian Losses; $760 million net (carriermanagement.com)
14-10-2022 RLI Corp.* 40.0 RLI Announces Hurricane Ian Loss Estimates | Business wire
18-10-2022 Swiss re 1,300.0 Swiss Re Expects Hurricane Ian Claims to Bring Q3 Loss (carriermanagement.com)
19-10-2022 Allstate 360.0 Allstate Sees Q3 Net Loss; Auto Reserve raises more damage than Ian (carriermanagement.com)
19-10-2022 Bow Capital ** 545.0 Arch Capital Group Ltd. Announces Catastrophe Loss Estimates | Business wire
19-10-2022 Everest Re 600.0 Everest Announces Preliminary Impact of Catastrophe Events in Q3 2022 | Business wire
19-10-2022 RenaissanceRe 540.0 RenaissanceRe Announces Estimated Net Negative Impact on Q3 2022 Operating Results | Business wire
19-10-2022 Travelers Corp. 326.0 Travelers Q3 net income down 31% (insurancejournal.com)
20-10-2022 AXIS Capital 160.0 AXIS Capital Responds to Impact of Catastrophe and Other Weather-Related Losses on Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results | Business wire
20-10-2022 Financial Cincinnati 220.0 Cincinnati Financial Corporation Announces Preliminary Estimate for Third Quarter Storm Losses (prnewswire.com)
20-10-2022 The Hanover 28.0 The Hanover Estimates Third Quarter Catastrophe Losses and Preliminary Results (prnewswire.com)
10-23-2022 Munich Re 1,600.0 Munich estimates Hurricane Ian could impact $1.6 billion on 2022 targets (carriermanagement.com)
24-10-2022 W. R. Berkley ** 94.0 Berkley cools down on pro lines, fueling ownership Cat Re engines (carriermanagement.com)
25-10-2022 Chubb 975.0 Chubb’s Q3 Numbers: Net Income Drops on Realized Losses; P/C profit up 15% (carriermanagement.com)
27-10-2022 The Hartford 214.0 Q3 Net Income 30% Down at The Hartford; $214 million in Ian losses (carriermanagement.com)
27-10-2022 Kinsale+ 26.0 Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | Kinsale Capital Group Announces Third Quarter 2022 Results
31-10-2022 TBEN 87.0 TBEN Records 50% Decline in Q3 Net Income (carriermanagement.com)
11/1/2022 AIG 450.0 AIG reports Q3 results with $450 million in losses from Ian (insurancejournal.com)
11/1/2022 James River 5.0 James River Announces Third Quarter 2022 Results (globenewswire.com)
11/1/2022 Markel 70.0 Markel Q3 earnings fall on investments, but insurance ‘solidly profitable’ (carriermanagement.com)
11/2/2022 American financial group 39.0 American Financial Group Inc. Announces Third Quarter Results and Announces Special Dividend | Business thread
11/2/2022 AXA 414.0 2022-11-02 – AXA – Press Release – 9M22 Activity Indicators (axa-contento-118412.eu)
11/2/2022 Green light Re 19.5 Press Release 2022 Q3 Earnings (greenlightre.com)
11/2/2022 Hiscox Ltd 135.0 Trade Statement Q3 2022 | Hiscox group
11/2/2022 Kemper** 27.0 Kemper Announces Third Quarter 2022 Operating Results | Business thread
11/2/2022 Selective 10.0 Selective Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results, Including Net Income of $0.66 per Diluted Common Share and Non-GAAP Operating Income(1) of $0.99 per Diluted Common Share (prnewswire.com)
11/2/2022 SiriusPoint 80.1 Sirius Point Ltd. – SiriusPoint reports year-over-year improvement in adoption results and simplifies operating platform (siriuspt.com)
3-11-2022 Fairfax Financial Holdings 560.0 Fairfax – Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited: Third Quarter Financial Results
3-11-2022 Lancashire Insurance* 175.0 Results, reports and presentations (lancashiregroup.com)
3-11-2022 Liberty Mutual 835.0 Q3-2022-revenue-release1.pdf (libertymutualgroup.com)
11/5/2022 Berkshire Hathaway 2,700.0 Berkshire Hathaway reports $2.7 billion third quarter loss (carriermanagement.com)
6-11-2022 Hanover Re 286.0 Quarterly statement Hanover Re 30-09-2022
7-11-2022 Argo Group 4.2 Argo Group Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results | Business thread
7-11-2022 White Mountains 51.0 WHITE MOUNTAINS REPORTS THIRD QUARTER RESULTS (prnewswire.com)
8-11-2022 Lemonade 2.2 Lemonade 10Q SEC filing
9-11-2022 Family 2.5 Kin Insurance maintains steady year-over-year growth in third quarter, up 151% year-to-date | Kin insurance
9-11-2022 PartnerRe 300.0 PartnerRe Ltd. Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results – PartnerRe
9-11-2022 SCOR 289.0 Results first nine months 2022 | SCOR
9-11-2022 Zurich 550.0 Zurich Insurance expects $550 million hit from Hurricane Ian, but on track to beat targets (insurancejournal.com)
11/10/2022 Hippopotamus 4.7 Hippo-Shareholders-2022-Q3-v8[47].pdf (q4cdn.com)
11/11/2022 Beazley plc 120.0 REG – Beazley PLC – Trading Statement (investis.com)
from 13-11-2022 Total Including NFIP 17,705.6
11/10/2022 NFIP* 4,000.0 FEMA Projects $3.5-$5.3 Billion NFIP Losses to Hurricane Ian
from 13-11-2022 Total Including NFIP 21,705.6

* Range of net losses by company; CM used the center point

** Includes catastrophes other than Ian

+ Approximate: Estimated by Loss Ratio Points and Premium Earned

Note: The $2.6 billion loss figure used for citizens assumes no reinsurance recovery.

All told, the mid-November reading is still well below industry-wide estimates of Hurricane Ian made by modeling and credit rating agencies in the days following Ian’s landfall, which average around $55 billion.

Industry-wide Hurricane Ian Estimates ($Billions)

CM and IJ staff reports. Aon report summarized by LS Howard of Insurance Journal

Carriers Catastrophe Natural Disasters Hurricane Hurricane Ian

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