What will happen to AbbVie Stock?

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AbbVie stock (NYSE: ABBV) reported its Q2 results last week, with sales lagging and profits above street estimates. ABBV shares are down about 7% in a week while it is down 8% in a month. The company reported revenue of $14.6 billion (up 4.5% yoy) and EPS of $3.37 (up 11% yoy) in the second quarter, compared to consensus estimates of respectively $14.7 billion and $3.32. AbbVie’s
ABBV
Sales of hematologic oncology drugs decreased by 9%, depressing sales growth.

This can be attributed to the fact that its blockbuster drug – Imbruvica – is losing market share to new entrants, including AstraZeneca’s Calquence. Despite the mixed results, the company confirmed its full-year outlook for adjusted diluted earnings per share between $13.78 and $13.98. The company’s mixed results and a decline in its hematologic oncology portfolio did not sit well with investors, as reflected in the stock price correction.

With ABBV stock falling 8% in a month, will ABBV stock continue its downward trajectory or is it imminent to rise? Judging by historical achievements, there is: a higher probability of a rise for ABBV shares the coming month. ABBV shares have fallen 212 times in the past ten years by 8% or more in a month. Of those, 138 resulted in a rise in ABBV shares over the ensuing one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 138 out of 212, or about a 65% chance of a rise in ABBV shares the coming month. See our analysis of AbbVie Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Calculating ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using data from the last ten years

  • After a movement of -7% or more for five days, the proportion rose in 60% of cases in the following five days.
  • After a movement of -6% or more for ten days, the proportion increased in 68% of cases in the following ten days.
  • After a movement of -8% or more over a twenty-one day period, the proportion increased in 65% of cases in the following twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a higher probability of a rise in ABBV stock over the next five, ten and twenty-one days.

AbbVie Return (Recent) Peer Comparison

  • Five-day return: NVS highest at -0.5%; ABBV lowest at -6.7%
  • Ten-day return: NVS highest at 3.5%; ABBV lowest at -6.3%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: NVS highest at 1.3%; ABBV lowest at -8.4%

While it may seem like ABBV stocks could gain in the short term, it’s helpful to see how AbbVie’s peers rate on metrics that matter. Other valuable comparisons for companies in different sectors can be found at Pear Comparisons.

In addition, the Covid-19 crisis has created many price discontinuities that can provide attractive trading opportunities. For example, you will be amazed at how counter-intuitive stock valuation is xylem vs. Merck.

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