Will Dish Network Stock Continue to Underperform?


Dish Network stock is down about 8% over the past week (about 5 trading days) and about flat (21 trading days) over the past month. This compares to the broader markets which are up 4% over the past month. There are a number of factors explaining the recent decline in Dish shares. First, the company’s pay TV subscriber base, which includes both Dish TV satellite and Sling TV Internet users, declined by 270,000 in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 9.75 million users. This marks a turnaround from the third quarter when the company added 30,000 net subscribers. Investors are also likely to expect things to remain challenging in the near term as the US economy is increasingly likely to slide into recession and the Federal Reserve continues its path of rate hikes. This could pose a problem for Dish, given its high financial leverage (about $20 billion in debt) and declining core pay-TV business.

However, with Dish stock holding more or less flat over the past month, how is it likely to move in the short term? Judging by historical performance, there is about an equal chance of a rise or fall in DISH stock in the next month. There were 1291 cases in the past 10 years when DISH Network
stock saw a trailing 21-day gain of 0.2% or more. 634 of those cases resulted in an increase in DISH stock over the subsequent one-month period (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 634 out of 1291, or about a 49% chance of DISH Network stock rising in the next month. See our analysis Dish stock Chance of increase for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event probability’ and ‘Probability of increase’ based on the data of the last ten years

  • After moving -8% or more for five days, the stock rose 53% in the following five days.
  • After moving -7.5% or more for 10 days, stock rose 55% in the following 10 days
  • After moving 0.2% or more over a twenty-one day period, the stock rose 49% of the time over the following twenty-one days.

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